Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Ukraine Expects A New Russian And Rebel Offensive In The East



Ukraine Redeploys Troops, Fearing New Rebel Offensive -- Reuters

* Russia denies NATO accusations over Ukraine
* Ukraine says rebels are rearming and regrouping
* West set to continue sanctions (Edits, new throughout)

KIEV/DONETSK, Ukraine, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Wednesday it was redeploying troops in the east because of fears separatists will launch a new military offensive, despite Russia's denials it has sent troops to reinforce the rebels.

A ceasefire agreed by the pro-Russian rebels and government forces more than two months ago is now all but dead, and Western fears of a return to all-out conflict are growing.

U.S. General Philip Breedlove, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said the alliance had seen Russian troops and tanks entering Ukraine in the past few days, confirming reports by international observers.

Read more ....

More News On Ukraine Expecting A New Russian And Rebel Offensive In The East

Ukraine Defense Minister Warns of Possible New Rebel Offensive -- VOA
Ukraine preparing for combat in face of Russian build-up -- AFP
Ukraine soldiers prepare for possible 'rebel offensive' -- Deutsche Welle
Ukraine 'readies for combat' as Russian troops enter the country -- The Telegraph
Ukraine redeploys troops, fearing new rebel offensive -- Today Online
Kiev’s army should gear up for winter warfare – Ukraine Defense Ministry -- RT

3 comments:

James said...

WNU,
This is a little bit of a head scratcher for me. I have heard most all of the explanations for this move and none are that convincing to me as to what Moscow thinks it's going to accomplish. I can think of only three major reasons:
1) To deter/disrupt an incipient Ukrainian offensive.
2) Help the separatists clean up remaining Ukrainian pockets with in separatist areas.
3) An offensive against Western Ukraine territories.

1) The separatists could probably deal with this alone, especially with Russian troops just on the other side of the fence in case things go badly. Doubtful
2)Clean up pockets (ie Dohansk Airport), maybe, but why not let winter take care of that.
3)Very doubtful, Moscow would throw away every advantage it has accrued up until this time and put itself in a occupying position with armed resistance.

I know there has been a lot of meetings in Moscow, with and without separatists, but there has just been the gas deal and some moderation of rhetoric lately which seem to be wasted by recent events. Something happened in China between Putin and Xi, an understanding, a green light of some sort, but something did happen.

War News Updates Editor said...

James .... When the ceasefire was agreed in September I shut my brain off when it came analyzing the Ukraine conflict. Call it fatigue and depression .... the country that I once knew no longer exists .... but I believed that some accommodation will eventually be reached.

That has not happened .... and to make matters worst .... a major humanitarian crisis is about to explode in eastern Ukraine as winter approaches. There are literally hundreds of thousands of senior citizens who are trapped in the conflict with little if any utilities, support, or basic foodstuffs. It is this approaching humanitarian catastrophe that is now driving Moscow's policy to act ... and act now. In the past day I have jumped full blown into understanding what is happening .... I have talked to my friends and they are utterly horrified with the news and intelligence reports that they are getting. Someone told me that Putin made a decision last week that this was not going to happen ... and that all options are now being considered.

I will be posting my own analysis and commentary on the situation later today. Bottom line ... after Medvedev comes back from the ASEAN summit .... options for a major military offensive followed by a humanitarian operation will be considered .... and I am willing to bet good money that Putin will sign off on it.

More later.

James said...

I can see this.